Kerala Summer forecast 26/04/24: Hot Humid weather prevail : Low pressure near srilanka; More summer rain in May
By Raghu Ram
Kerala again there may not be much respite from the extreme heat with high relative humidity levels till April 30th as the westerlies have not picked up, bringing in early sea breeze and reduction in day temperature. Only isolated thundershowers are likely in the eastern pockets in south Kerala, particularly Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam and Pathanamthitta districts.
MJO activity ahead
By May 1st week, more rainy days are likely over Kerala and south Tamil Nadu as MJO activity is likely to kick in and I am expecting the anticyclonic cell over the central Arabian sea to dissipate gradually paving the way for more wet spells and reduction in day temperatures across Kerala.
The north- western Indian plains have to hot up more for the rains in Kerala to deepen. This has not happened so far as frequent western disturbances are keeping the north- western India a bit more cooler.
Low pressure near Sri Lanka
A low pressure circulation may lie south east off the Srilankan coast from 27th April. But as the Coriolis parameter is very low or practically nil near the equator such lows rarely snowball into big cyclones.
Between May 2nd and 5th the interior east- west shear zone is likely to shift southwards from Chennai to north Kerala through south interior Karnataka.
Due to this shear zone covering interior Karnataka, interior Tamil Nadu and north Kerala heavy thundershowers likely over Mysuru, Bengaluru, Tirupathi, Coimbatore, Pollachi, the Nilgiris, Palakkad, Malappuram, Wayanad, eastern pockets of Trissur, Ernakulam, Idukki, Kottayam and and Pathanamthitta on May 2nd and 3rd.
Western Disturbance effect North India
A fresh and moderately strong western disturbance is brewing in north- eastern region of Tajikistan and it could hit the north western Himalayas by 27th April as a trough lying at mid and lower tropospheric levels extending from Afghanistan and adjoining north-east Pakistan to Uttrakhand through J&K and Himachal Pradesh.
The low pressure associated with the induced cyclonic circulation may lie over north east Pskistan. Moderate heavy snowfall is likely over the upper reaches of J&K, especially, and widespread rain and snowfall over Ramban, Sangalden, Anantnag, Kishtwar, and Srinager on 27th and 28th April. In HP, Manali , Keylong, Rekong Peo, may get moderate to heavy snowfall . In the Gharwal regions of western Uttrakhand light snowfall is likely in the upper reaches.
Due to the associated cyclonic circulation and moisture incursion from the Arabian sea, moderate thundershowers are likely in Amritsar, Gurudaspur, Ludhiana, in Punjab on 27th and 28th April.
Due to another east- west shear zone extending from Jharkhand, to Maharashtra through Odisha, Chattisgarh and east Madhyapradesh and interior Maharashtra, rain or thundershowers is likely in Raipur, Korba & Ambikapur in Chattisgarh, Singrauli, Rourkela, Dhanbad in Jharkhand, Pench, Jabalpur, Chinwara in Madhyapradesh, Nagpur, Jalgaon, Nanded, Solapur in Maharashtra, Bhuvaneswar in Odisha.
Trough in the easterlies merging with the east- west shear zone extending from coastal Andhrapradesh to interior Maharashtra could bring heavy thundershowers in Visakhapatnam, Kakinada, Srikakulam and Vijayawada between 27th and 30th April.
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