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തെക്കുപടിഞ്ഞാറന്‍ മണ്‍സൂണ്‍ (കാലവര്‍ഷം) വിടവാങ്ങല്‍ സജീവമായതോടെ, കേരളത്തില്‍ വടക്കുകിഴക്കന്‍ മണ്‍സൂണ്‍ (തുലാവര്‍ഷം) nem forecast 2023 എത്ര ലഭിക്കുമെന്ന ചര്‍ച്ചയും സജീവമായി. തുലാവര്‍ഷത്തില്‍ കനത്ത മഴ ലഭിച്ചില്ലെങ്കില്‍ വരള്‍ച്ചയ്ക്കുള്ള സാധ്യത ഏറും.
ഈ സാഹചര്യത്തില്‍ വിവിധ അന്താരാഷ്ട്ര കാലാവസ്ഥാ ഏജന്‍സികളുടെ പ്രവചന പ്രകാരം കേരളത്തിലെ മഴ സാധ്യതാ പ്രവചനം താരതമ്യപ്പെടുത്തുകയാണ് കാലാവസ്ഥാ ശാസ്ത്രജ്ഞനും നിരീക്ഷകനുമായ രാജീവന്‍ എരിക്കുളം.
കേന്ദ്ര കാലാവസ്ഥാ വകുപ്പ് (IMD)
ഒക്ടോബര്‍, ഡിസംബര്‍ മാസത്തില്‍ പെയ്യുന്ന മഴയാണ് തുലാവര്‍ഷക്കണക്കില്‍ വരിക. India Meteorological Department (IMD) കേന്ദ്ര കാലാവസ്ഥാ വകുപ്പിന്റെ പ്രവചന പ്രകാരം കേരളത്തില്‍ തുലാവര്‍ഷം സാധാരണയില്‍ കൂടുതലാകും. ഒക്ടോബറിലും സാധാരണയില്‍ കൂടുതല്‍ മഴ ലഭിക്കുമെന്ന് ഐ.എം.ഡി പ്രവചിക്കുന്നു.
കാലാവസ്ഥാ വകുപ്പിന്റെ ആഴ്ച തിരിച്ചുള്ള പ്രവചനത്തില്‍ ഒക്ടോബര്‍ 6 മുതല്‍ 12 വരെയുള്ള ആദ്യ ആഴ്ച കേരളത്തില്‍ സാധാരണയില്‍ കുറവ് മഴയും രണ്ടാം ആഴ്ച (ഒക്ടോബര്‍ 13-19 ) കേരളത്തില്‍ സാധാരണയില്‍ കൂടുതല്‍ മഴയുമാണ് പ്രവചിക്കുന്നത്.
ECMWF
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) യൂറോപ്യന്‍ സെന്റര്‍ ഫോര്‍ മീഡിയം റേഞ്ച് വെതര്‍ ഫോര്‍കാസ്റ്റ് എന്ന അന്താരാഷ്ട്ര കാലാവസ്ഥാ പ്രവചന മാതൃക (NWP) യുടെ പ്രവചന പ്രകാരം തെക്കന്‍ കേരളത്തില്‍ തുലാ മഴ സാധാരണയില്‍ കൂടുതല്‍ ലഭിക്കും. ഒക്ടോബര്‍ മാസത്തിലും സാധാരണയില്‍ കൂടുതല്‍ മഴയാണ് ഇവര്‍ പ്രവചിക്കുന്നത്.
ജപ്പാന്‍ കാലാവസ്ഥാ വകുപ്പ് (JMA)
ജപ്പാന്‍ കാലാവസ്ഥാ വകുപ്പായ ജപ്പാന്‍ മീറ്റിയോറളജിക്കല്‍ ഏജന്‍സിയുടെ Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) പ്രവചനം അനുസരിച്ച് കേരളത്തില്‍ തുലാമഴ സാധാരണയേക്കാള്‍ കുറവായിരിക്കും. എന്നാല്‍ ഒക്ടോബര്‍ മാസത്തില്‍ മഴ സാധാരണയേക്കാള്‍ കൂടുതലുമാകുമെന്നും ഇവര്‍ പറയുന്നു.
ലോക കാലാവസ്ഥാ സംഘടന (WMO)
ഐക്യരാഷ്ട്രസഭയുടെ നേതൃത്വത്തിലുള്ള ലോക കാലാവസ്ഥാ സംഘടനയുടെ World Meteorological Organization (wmo) മള്‍ട്ടി മോഡല്‍ ഫോര്‍കാസ്റ്റ് പ്രകാരം തുലാവര്‍ഷം തെക്കന്‍ കേരളത്തില്‍ സാധാരണയേക്കാള്‍ കൂടും. ഒക്്‌ടോബറിലും തെക്കന്‍ കേരളത്തില്‍ സാധാരണയില്‍ കൂടുതല്‍ മഴയാണ് ഇവര്‍ പ്രവചിക്കുന്നത്. വിവിധ കാലാവസ്ഥാ ഏജന്‍സികളുടെ പ്രവചന മാതൃകകള്‍ അവലോകനം ചെയ്താണ് ലോക കാലാവസ്ഥാ സംഘടനയുടെ പ്രവചനം.
കോപ്പര്‍നിക്കസ് ക്ലൈമറ്റ് ചേഞ്ച് സര്‍വീസ്
ബ്രിട്ടന്‍ ആസ്ഥാനമായ കാലാവസ്ഥാ വ്യതിയാന നിരീക്ഷണ സംഘടനയായ കോപ്പര്‍നിക്കസ് ക്ലൈമറ്റ് ചേഞ്ച് സര്‍വീസ് Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) കേരളത്തില്‍ സാധാരണയേക്കാള്‍ കൂടുതല്‍ മഴ ലഭിക്കുമെന്ന് പ്രവചിക്കുന്നു. ഒക്ടോബറില്‍ തെക്കന്‍ കേരളത്തില്‍ സാധാരണയില്‍ കൂടുതല്‍ മഴ ഈ ഏജന്‍സി പ്രവചിക്കുന്നുണ്ട്.
മെറ്റ് ഓഫീസ് (ബ്രിട്ടീഷ് കാലാവസ്ഥാ ഏജന്‍സി)
ബ്രിട്ടന്റെ ഔദ്യോഗിക കാലാവസ്ഥാ ഏജന്‍സിയായ മെറ്റ് ഓഫിസ് Met Office പ്രവചന പ്രകാരം തെക്കന്‍ കേരളത്തില്‍ തുലാവര്‍ഷത്തില്‍ സാധാരണയില്‍ കൂടുതല്‍ മഴ ലഭിക്കും. ഒക്ടോബറിലും സാധാരണയില്‍ കൂടുതല്‍ മഴയാണ് കേരളത്തില്‍ ഈ ഏജന്‍സി പ്രവചിക്കുന്നത്.
അപെക് ക്ലൈമറ്റ് സെന്റര്‍
ദക്ഷിണ കൊറിയന്‍ നഗരമായ ബുസാന്‍ കേന്ദ്രമായി പ്രവര്‍ത്തിക്കുന്ന അപെക് ക്ലൈമറ്റ് സെന്റര്‍ APEC Climate Center ഏഷ്യയിലെ പ്രധാന കാലാവസ്ഥാ വ്യതിയാന നിരീക്ഷകരാണ്. ഇവരുടെ പ്രവചന പ്രകാരം കേരളത്തില്‍ തുലാവര്‍ഷ സീസണിലും ഒക്ടോബറിലും സാധാരണയേക്കാള്‍ കൂടുതല്‍ മഴയാണ് പ്രവചിക്കുന്നത്.
ഓസ്‌ട്രേലിയന്‍ കാലാവസ്ഥാ ഏജന്‍സി
ഓസ്‌ട്രേലിയന്‍ കാലാവസ്ഥാ ഏജന്‍സിയായ Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) ന്റെ പ്രവചന പ്രകാരം കേരളത്തില്‍ തുലാവര്‍ഷ സീസണിലും ഒക്ടോബറിലും സാധാരണയേക്കാള്‍ കൂടുതല്‍ മഴ ലഭിക്കുമെന്നാണ് പ്രവചനം.
National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
അമേരിക്കയുടെ കാലാവസ്ഥാ ഏജന്‍സിയായ National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) യുടെ പ്രവചന പ്രകാരം കേരളത്തില്‍ തുലാവര്‍ഷ സീസണില്‍ സാധാരണ തോതിലോ സാധാരണയേക്കാള്‍ കൂടുതലോ മഴ ലഭിക്കും. എന്നാല്‍ ഒക്ടോബര്‍ മാസത്തില്‍ തെക്കന്‍ കേരളത്തില്‍ സാധാരണയില്‍ കൂടുതല്‍ മഴയും ഈ ഏജന്‍സി പ്രവചിക്കുന്നു.
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