India , Kerala weekly weather round up and forecast
Reghu Ram
North- west India braces up for another wet spell.
In the previous week ended on 29th February 2024, due to the back to back western disturbances, snowfall and rains have been reported from the north- western himalayan regions. As the western disturbance was moderate to strong certain isolated pockets in J&K received heavy snowfall as I had already predicted in my previous post.
Light rainfall occurred over the north eastern regions of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya, with isolated thunder showers over Chattisgarh, east Uttar Pradesh and Jharkand due to the trough in the easterlies. Generally dry weather prevailed over the other parts of the country.
The minimum temperatures were 2 degrees above normal in Bihar, Uttrakhand, Himachal, J& K and Gujarat regions. However , in the lower plains of Haryana, NCR Delhi , Chandigarh, below normal minimum & maximum temperatures have been recorded. The maximum day temperature over the north-west Indian plains were in the range 24°C to 25°C and minimum was around 9°C to 11.5°C. The maximum day temperature was in the range -5°C to -3°C in the upper Himalayan hill stations like Leh, Drass, Ladakh in the PirPanjal hills of the western Himalayas.
Kargil in Ladakh region recorded the coldest at minus 18°C in the J& K region. In the hill stations lying in upper Himalayas like Gangotri, Yamunotri Uttarkashi , Hemkund Lake, Kedarnath , Badrinath , the maximum day temperature remained in the range 4°C to 1°C while the minimum was in the range -10°C to -8°C. In the lower Himalayan hill stations of Shimla, Chopta, Kalpa, Munsiyari, Dhanolti, Mussourie, Manali, Nainital, Chitkul, the maximum day temperature ranged between 8°C & 15°C while the minimum was in the range, -6°C to 8°C depending on the altitude of these stations.
The lowest temperature in the upper Gharwal Himalayas in Uttrakhand was recorded in Hemkund Lake / Valley of flowers park at -14 °C. In the hill shrines of Kedarnath & Badrinath the maximum day temperature was around -3°C and minimum was around -11°C.
In the national capital region, comprising Delhi and New Delhi the maximum was around 25°C while the minimum was around 11°C.
In the north- eastern region, maximum day temperature was around 27°C and minimum was around 17°C, and in Shillong it was 21°C and 10°C respectively. In upper eastern Himalayan regions like Darjeeling , Gangtok, Kurseong, Siliguri, the maximum day temperature was around 16°C- 18°C, and the minimum around 6°C to 9°C. The lowest temperature of 11°C continued to be recorded at NathuLa followed by Selas at -9°C and Tawang at -2°C in the north east region.
South India also under prolonged dry spell.
In the south generally dry conditions prevailed. Day temperatures continued its upward trend in certain pockets in Tamil Nadu and Kerala and it remained normal in the plains especially, Telengana, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka .
Kerala in hot pan
In Kerala, Kottayam, was the hottest place with 38.5°C followed by Kannur Airport, Kannur city, Punalur at 37°C. Day maximum temperature in the hill station of Ooty was below normal at 18°C and it was 18.6° in Kodaikanal and the minimum in both these hill stations where at 10°C.
Hill stations of Kerala remained cool.
In Kerala, the upper lying hill stations like Munnar, Kanthalloor , Vattavada and Devikulam minimum temperature generally remained at 14°C -16°C. The maximum day temperature in Munnar was around 26°C, while the minimum was 14°C. In Kanthalloor & Vattavada the maximum was at 19°C and the minimum, was around 12°C -14°C.
Forecast:( Effective from 18:00 hrs from 29/02/24, to 23:59 hrs 06/03/24
Fresh strong western disturbance is likely around March 2nd over north west India. The associated trough may lie at middle & lower levels extending from north east Pakistan and Thajikisthan to Uttrakhand.
Under the influence of the induced strong cyclonic flow embedded in the upper level westerlies, very heavy snowfall is predicted for the upper Kashmir region, pockets like Manali, Shimla, Kufri in upper reaches of Himachal Pradesh and in a few pockets like Harsil, Chamoli, Chakratha, Yamunotri, Gangotri, Kedarnath, Badrinath, Hemkund & Valley of flowers in Uttrakhand from 2nd March to 4th March. The pockets in lower plains like Gurudaspur, Hoshiarpur, Patiala, Ludhiana, of Punjab, Chandiigarh, Haryana & Delhi may get moderate to heavy rainfall.
Minimum temperatures may once again dip over north west India especially J&K, Himachal, Uttrakhand, Punjab, Haryana & Delhi under the influence of the western disturbance from 5th March. Isolated thundershowers may occur in Agra, Lucknow, Farukkabad, Faizabad and Kanpur in Uttarpradesh on 3rd March.
An east- west shear zone may lie at middle levels extending from Uttarpradesh to Jharkhand through Chattisgarh. Under the influence of the associated trough, hail storm or thundershowers may occur over Jabalpur, Dhanbad Singruli, Jamshedpur, Rourkela on 3rd March.
In the south, dry spell is predicted for the upcoming week as upper level anticyclonic cell continues over the Bay.
In Kerala, maximum day temperature is expected to remain high by 2-3 degrees in Kottayam, interior Ernakulam, Kannur districts and remain around 37°C to 38°C. Palakkad region may continue to experience below normal maximum day temperature and remain around 35°C-36°C.
Global weather update
The quasi biennial oscillation of upper level winds at 30hpa to 50 hpa over the equatorial troposphere is in easterly phase. These winds also propagate downwards during northern hemisphere winter and influence the lower level winds over the tropics. This may give more precipitation over the south-east asian regions during January to March- April but could give dry weather in south western parts of Bay of Bengal and Arabian sea. Hence there are increased chances of encountering a drier March- April season . The MJO has also receded to its unit circle and lost amplitude and hence no chances of substantial rains in March first week likely in south India.
However during 2nd week of March, MJO may gain some amplitude and some rainfall is likely during 2nd week of March. Globally ELNino is weakening though Pacific equatorial SST anomalies are still maintaining ELNino profile. There is 80% chance of ELNino going neutral by April – June 2024 and more than 50% chance of LANina developing around June 2024.
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