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Pakistan floods ‘made up to 50% worse by global heating’

By The Guardian
The report on the Pakistan floods came from World Weather Attribution, a grouping of scientists from around the world who try to discern the influence of human-caused climate change on extreme weather events. They analyse such events in real time to produce quick responses on whether climate change has influenced extreme weather, a process that used to take years.
Previous studies have found that climate change exacerbated the heatwaves in India, Pakistan and the UK earlier this year, and floods in Brazil. WWA found last year that the heatwave in the Pacific north-west region of the US would have been “virtually impossible” without climate change.
A recent analysis by the Guardian revealed the extent to which the climate crisis is “supercharging” weather events, with devastating consequences.
Otto said that countries meeting this November for the Cop27 UN climate conference in Egypt should take note of the extreme weather the world has seen this year and in recent years. “The lesson is that this will become more likely, probably a lot more likely. Becoming more resilient is very important.”

Heavy intensity rain forecast for next four days

Rain is gaining strength in the state and the Indian Meteorological department has predicted heavy intensity rains in the next four days starting from Tuesday, said Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. The state government has switched to action mode putting all the preventive mechanisms in place.

Six deaths had been reported in the state. As many as five houses were completely damaged and 55 houses, partially. The heavy intensity rain is predicted from Monday evening to Tuesday in South Kerala and central Kerala which would thereafter expand to the Northern side.

Red alert has been declared in seven districts on Monday and Tuesday–Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Kottayam, Alappuzha, Idukki and Ernakulam. We are expecting more than 200 metre rainfall in the next 24 hours. said CM.

The state had already started preventive measures against the monsoon havoc since March. Mock drill was conducted with the participation of all districts on March 14 and 15. The chief secretary had convened a meeting of all the government departments on May 14. The precautionary measures were reviewed in an official level meeting held on May 16. Following this, district disaster management meetings had been held in each district and convened pre-monsoon preparation meeting as well. The Orange book was renewed on May 25 and was asked to implement it strictly.

One crore rupees has been allotted to each district for monsoon preparation. The state emergency operation centre of the state disaster management authority has been set up to function as the state control room. The control room comprises of members from NDRF, state level rescue forces and other departments. Besides, control room will be opened in all districts and in taluk-level. The measures have been started to shift people from low lying areas and those staying in landslide prone regions.

As many as four teams of NDRF have been put in place in Idukki, Kozhikode, Wayanad and Thrissur. Four more NDRF teams will soon join at Ernakulam, Kottayam, Kollam and Malappuram. The water from the 17 dams under the irrigation department is being discharged. At present, there is no need to drain away water from the major dams under the KSEB. The water from the minor dams–Kallarkutty, Ponmudi, Lower Periyar, Moozhiyar and Peringalkooth had already been discharged. The water level condition in our major dams has been reviewed by the dam management committee and there is no need to alarm as of now.

The police force has also been geared up to face any eventuality. The district police chief will maintain hotline communication with the district collector and district disaster management authority. JCB, boats and other life saving equipment will be set ready at police stations. ADGP M R Ajith Kumar has been appointed as the nodal officer in charge of deploying cops. ADGP Vijay S Sakhare is the nodal officer to take care of disaster management activities.

Already seven camps have been opened in the state-Kollam-1, Pathanamthitta-1, Idukki-1, Kottayam-2, Thrissur-1 and Wayanad-1. As many as 90 people have been shifted to these camps.

A 24×7 functioning control room has started functioning at the office of the revenue minister in the secretariat (mobile number: 8078548538). All local bodies have been alerted to commence control rooms within 24 hours of time. The district collector can declare holiday for the educational institutions considering the local situation. I am expressing my deep condolences to the kin of the father and two daughters who died near Thiruvalla after their car fell off in the rivulet.

When Will Southwest Monsoon Arrive over Kerala This Year?

By TWC India Edit Team

Thursday, May 26: After what has been a scorching summer riddled with heatwaves and above-average temperatures, it is finally time for Southern India to welcome the wettest period of the year: the southwest monsoon season.
Due to the movement and direction of these monsoon winds, the first monsoon showers mark their arrival over the Indian mainland by drenching the southernmost parts of Kerala. Over the past several decades, this onset of monsoon in ‘God’s Own Country’ has occurred on or around June 1.This year, however, the opening monsoon rains may land in Kerala up to five days earlier than normal — on May 27, 2022 (+/- 4 days).

“The monsoon onset conditions in Kerala are currently favourable. The actual onset is likely to occur on May 27, with a model error of four days. The monsoon has already progressed up to the Sri Lankan region,” an official from the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) regional met office in Thiruvananthapuram told weather.com.
Further, the daily forecast issued by the IMD has indicated that as of Thursday morning, the conditions remain favourable for the further advancement of monsoon over some parts of Southwest Arabian Sea, some more parts of Southeast Arabian Sea, Maldives and Comorin area, south and east-central Bay of Bengal and some parts of northeast Bay of Bengal during next 24 hour.

The onset of monsoon has always been tricky, and over the last 50 years, the date of onset in Kerala has ranged from May 19 (in 1990) to June 18 (in 1972). This variance is in large attributed to the state of the ENSO — El Niño–Southern Oscillation — in the preceding winter.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) — a tropical wave that travels around the equator every 30-40 days — also modulates the precipitation patterns in India. The current MJO signal (active phase) lies over the Indian Ocean and will likely trigger the onset of monsoon over Kerala by May 27.
However, the MJO may enter an inactive phase by the end of May. This suppression may subsequently favour a slow progress of monsoon, even though the background state weakly favours an earlier start. Therefore, amidst the prevailing weak La Niña conditions, there is a chance that the onset and subsequent progress of monsoon over Kerala and Karnataka can be delayed until the first week of June.The IMD officially declares the monsoon onset when around 60% of the available weather stations in the state record rainfall of 2.5 mm or more for two consecutive days after May 10.
If these conditions are met, and if the technical criteria for wind field and outgoing longwave radiation are fulfilled, then the onset over Kerala is usually declared on the second day.In 2020, the IMD revised the normal dates of onset and withdrawal of monsoon across India, based on the average dates of southwest monsoon’s arrival between 1961 to 2019. However, for Kerala, the new normal remains the same as the old, June 1.
Meanwhile, the IMD’s long-range forecast has indicated that the monsoon’s performance this year is likely to be normal. Quantitatively, the seasonal precipitation may amount to 87 cm — around 99% of India’s long-period average for monsoons.
As for the ongoing pre-monsoon season, it was certainly much wetter than normal for Kerala. Between March 1 and May 25, the state has collectively recorded 615.1 mm precipitation, which is a 108% ‘large excess’ compared to its long-term average for this period (295.4 mm). Even at present, widespread rains continue to drench Kerala, in what could be the final pre-monsoon rain spell of the year.

Heavy to very heavy rains in AP

Heavy to very heavy rains with gusty winds possible over South and Central Andhra as Asani moves nearer to coast..!!

Asani has pounded parts of South Andhra and North TN with now focus moving to South and Central Andhra..!!
With core rains now over Andhra, the rains shall gradually decrease over North TN coast while pleasant weather is expected for next 24 hours..!!

Asani shall gradually weaken and will be downgraded into a deep depression in next 24 hours as cross flows and subtropical ridge shall push the weather system towards Northeast direction..!!
Winds may gradually reduce to 35 kms/h by tomorrow noon..!!

Kerala shall experience moderate to isolated heavy spells over the next 24 hours..!!
Asani shall touch inbetween the coast of Vizag and Machulipatnam of Andhra before taking a NE Curve..!!
Currently the models are not in a strong agreement that the system shall reemerge after hitting the coast in next 24 hours..!!

Twin Cyclones in the Indian Ocean

BY NASA Earth Observatory
A pair of tropical cyclones, one on each side of the equator, is putting on a show for satellites passing over the Indian Ocean.

On May 8, 2022, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on NOAA-20 captured this natural-color image of the storms at 12:55 p.m. local time (07:55 Universal Time).

The twin cyclones were spinning at roughly the same distance from the equator, but in opposite directions. A cyclone’s winds spin counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere but clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere due to the Coriolis effect—a force driven by Earth’s rotation that deflects prevailing winds in one direction in the Northern Hemisphere and the opposite direction in the Southern Hemisphere.

In the northern Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Asani advanced west-northwest on May 8 and had maximum sustained winds of 100-110 kilometers (60-70 miles) per hour as it moved across the Bay of Bengal. Forecasters for the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) expect Asani to weaken as it approaches southern India and curves northeast, keeping the storm offshore along the Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coast in the coming days. IMD has called for the suspension of all fishing operations in the most affected areas. Heavy rains pose the biggest threat on land.

South of the equator, Tropical Cyclone Karim is roaming open seas west of Australia. With winds peaking at the equivalent of a category 1 hurricane, the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center expects Karim to weaken quickly as it encounters high levels of wind shear in the coming days. The storm does not pose a threat to major population centers, though it could affect the Cocos Islands, a chain of coral islands with a population of 600.

An eastward moving tropical disturbance called the Madden-Julian Oscillation helped fuel the twin storms by promoting convection and strong westerly winds, according to reporting from The Weather Channel.

Weather Office Warns Of Fresh Heat Wave In Northwest, Central India

BY: NDTV
New Delhi: The Director-General of Meteorology at the India Meteorological Department (IMD) Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said on Thursday that a fresh spell of heatwave is likely to commence in some parts of northwest India and central India.
“Due to the presence of western disturbance over Northwest India, the heatwave has abated in the past 2-3 days, while the day temperature has fallen and this condition is likely to continue for the next two days. However, a fresh heatwave spell is likely to commence in Rajasthan. Isolated heatwave conditions are expected to start in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Vidarbha especially. For Rajasthan, it will be for today and tomorrow (May 5 and May 6), and on May 7, it (heatwave) will spread into some other parts of northwest India and central India,” Mohapatra said.

A heatwave warning will be issued for isolated places of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and the Vidarbha area, soon. “The heatwave condition is likely to spread to some more parts of northwest and central India after May 7,” he said.

Observing the weather patterns in South India, the IMD Andhra Pradesh has issued several guidelines for the weather for the next five days.

According to the IMD, the North Coastal Andhra Pradesh (NCAP) and Yanam in Andhra Pradesh are likely to experience thunderstorms with lightning, while the South Coastal Andhra Pradesh (SCAP) and Rayalaseema of Andhra Pradesh can witness a thunderstorm accompanied by lightning and gusty winds with a speed of 40-50 km per hour today (Thursday).

The IMD predicted that places in NCAP and Yanam, SCAP and Rayalaseema can face thunderstorms with lightning and gusty wind with 30-40 km per hour speed on Friday.

One or two places in Rayalaseema can witness thunderstorms with gusty winds of 30-40 km per hour on Saturday.

The places in NCAP and Yanam, SCAP and Rayalaseema are expected to face thunderstorm accompanied by lightning on Sunday as well as Monday.

“Trough/wind discontinuity from Vidarbha to south Tamilnadu now runs from above cyclonic circulation over northwest Madhya Pradesh to Comorin area across Vidarbha in Maharashtra, Telangana, Rayalaseema in Andhra Pradesh, and the interior Tamil Nadu at 0.9 km above mean sea level,” said the IMD.

Odisha Sounds Cyclone Alert, 18 Districts Asked To Take Measures

BY : NDTV
Bhubaneswar: Ahead of the formation of a low pressure area in the Andaman Sea, Odisha government has asked collectors of 18 districts to be prepared for a possible cyclone coming in from Bay of Bengal.
Special Relief Commissioner (SRC) P K Jena in a letter to the district collectors of Ganjam, Gajapati, Puri, Khurda, Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, Jajpur, Bhadrak, Balasore, Nayagarh, Cuttack, Mayurbhanj, Keonjhar, Dhenkanal, Malkangiri, Koraput, Rayagada and Kandhamal asked them to prepare in advance to reduce the impact of the possible cyclone.

He asked district collectors to regularly watch IMD forecasts and warnings and directed the authorities to send a compliance report on the recommended measures with detailed information on arrangements made in their respective districts by May 6.

The IMD has informed the Odisha government that a low-pressure area is likely to form over South Andaman Sea and its neighbourhood by Friday under the influence of a cyclonic circulation. The system is very likely to intensify into a depression in the next 48 hours and move in the north-westward direction.

The IMD also indicted that conditions are favourable for the formation of a storm next week.

Mr Jena asked the district collectors to identify the vulnerable people and shift them to safe shelters, prepare a detailed evacuation plan for those living in kutcha houses, near the coast or in low lying areas. The elderly, the disabled, women and children should be sent to designated geo-tagged shelter buildings.

All safe shelter buildings, permanent or temporary, should be geo-tagged and a team comprising three local officials, two male and one woman such as ASHA workers, lady teachers, lady constables and home guards should be put in charge of each of them.

This exercise too must be completed by May 6 and information on identified safe shelter buildings indicating latitude and longitude, names of the officials in charge and their mobile numbers must be sent to the SRC, the letter said.

Mr Jena also directed that safe pucca school buildings, public buildings in vulnerable areas should be identified as temporary shelters as per requirement and all cyclone and flood shelters should be immediately checked by the local tehsildars. They should check the water supply, functional toilets, generators, inflatable tower lights, mechanical cutters and other equipment available at these shelters.

As the power supply is cut off during the peak period of the cyclone, all offices should make their backup power arrangement for that period. Generators available in different offices and health institutions should be immediately checked and adequate fuel stored, he said.

The SRC said that satellite phones and digital mobile radio communication systems have been established in six coastal districts under the Early Warning Dissemination System for use in the event of the cyclone
Bhubaneswar: Ahead of the formation of a low pressure area in the Andaman Sea, Odisha government has asked collectors of 18 districts to be prepared for a possible cyclone coming in from Bay of Bengal.
Special Relief Commissioner (SRC) P K Jena in a letter to the district collectors of Ganjam, Gajapati, Puri, Khurda, Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, Jajpur, Bhadrak, Balasore, Nayagarh, Cuttack, Mayurbhanj, Keonjhar, Dhenkanal, Malkangiri, Koraput, Rayagada and Kandhamal asked them to prepare in advance to reduce the impact of the possible cyclone.

He asked district collectors to regularly watch IMD forecasts and warnings and directed the authorities to send a compliance report on the recommended measures with detailed information on arrangements made in their respective districts by May 6.

The IMD has informed the Odisha government that a low-pressure area is likely to form over South Andaman Sea and its neighbourhood by Friday under the influence of a cyclonic circulation. The system is very likely to intensify into a depression in the next 48 hours and move in the north-westward direction.

The IMD also indicted that conditions are favourable for the formation of a storm next week.

Mr Jena asked the district collectors to identify the vulnerable people and shift them to safe shelters, prepare a detailed evacuation plan for those living in kutcha houses, near the coast or in low lying areas. The elderly, the disabled, women and children should be sent to designated geo-tagged shelter buildings.

All safe shelter buildings, permanent or temporary, should be geo-tagged and a team comprising three local officials, two male and one woman such as ASHA workers, lady teachers, lady constables and home guards should be put in charge of each of them.

This exercise too must be completed by May 6 and information on identified safe shelter buildings indicating latitude and longitude, names of the officials in charge and their mobile numbers must be sent to the SRC, the letter said.

Mr Jena also directed that safe pucca school buildings, public buildings in vulnerable areas should be identified as temporary shelters as per requirement and all cyclone and flood shelters should be immediately checked by the local tehsildars. They should check the water supply, functional toilets, generators, inflatable tower lights, mechanical cutters and other equipment available at these shelters.

As the power supply is cut off during the peak period of the cyclone, all offices should make their backup power arrangement for that period. Generators available in different offices and health institutions should be immediately checked and adequate fuel stored, he said.

The SRC said that satellite phones and digital mobile radio communication systems have been established in six coastal districts under the Early Warning Dissemination System for use in the event of the cyclone.

LOW PRESSURE LIKELY TO FORM OVER ANDAMAN SEA NEXT WEEK

Despite extremely hot conditions, the month of April is getting over without a cyclonic storm. The frequency of tropical storms in the Indian Seas, as such, is not very large in April. Only 2 storms formed over the Indian basins and both over the Bay of Bengal, between 2011- 2021. Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘Fani’ formed in 2019, striking Odisha. Another one Maarutha, the 1st tropical storm of North Indian 0cean in 2017, was a weak and short lived impacted Myanmar. April 2022 is the 3rd successive year without the cyclone on either side of the coastline.

Baton now gets handed over from April to May. Between 2011 and 2021, month of May has witnessed 2 storms in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal having bigger share of 5, including the super cyclone Amphan in 2020. Most of these storms on either side of shoreline come up during the 2nd half of May. There could be an exception coming up shortly, with a likely storm in the Bay of Bengal, formative stage starting as early 1st week of May.
A cyclonic circulation is expected to move across Gulf of Thailand and Malay Peninsula, around 04thMay. Quickly, this will make its way to North Andaman Sea and likely to turn in to a low pressure area on 05thMay. Environmental conditions stand favorable for intensification to a depression in the subsequent 24hr. The weather system will be placed under watch for any further intensification. Any tropical system reaching the stage of depression, stand a fair chance of growing to a storm, at this time of the season, over the Andaman Sea.

Storms during month of May threaten Myanmar, Bangladesh, West Bengal and Odisha. Tropical cyclones are known for defying norms of track, intensity and timelines. Therefore, entire coastline turns vulnerable, till the threat recedes. Specific details with more clarity will be shared in the due course.

South India to End April on a Wet Note as Forecasts Suggest Fresh Spell of Rains

After a brief break in the summer showers, South India is set to witness more rains this week. The region, which has already witnessed 28% excess rainfall since March, is in for scattered rains and thunderstorms this week.

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds (speed reaching 30-40 kmph) over Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Telangana for the next five days and over Andhra Pradesh on April 27 and 28.

A trough (an extended, relatively low-pressure area), associated wind discontinuity, and a cyclonic circulation prevail around the southern Peninsular region this week.

In Kerala, fairly widespread rain and thunderstorms are likely to lash on Monday, after which the intensity will reduce to scattered showers from April 26-28. Meanwhile, isolated rains are on the cards for Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh during this period.

Given these inclement weather conditions, IMD has issued a yellow watch — which calls for residents to ‘be prepared’ — over Telangana, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry on April 26; Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam on April 27-28; and Kerala from April 26 to 29.

Major southern cities like Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Chennai and Kochi can expect partly cloudy skies with a few spells of rain the thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening hours.

Thiruvananthapuram and Ernakulam in Kerala recorded nearly 50 mm rainfall over the weekend. In Karnataka, Mysuru has received above-average rainfall with overcast conditions in April, escaping the summer sizzle. According to Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre (KSNDMC), the district received 48 mm of rainfall between April 1 and 23 against a normal of 44 mm.

Between March 1 and April 25, both Kerala (231 mm), coastal Karnataka (71 mm) and South Karnataka (83 mm) have received ‘large excess’ precipitation as compared to their receptive normals, while Tamil Nadu (77 mm) and Puducherry (52 mm) have also registered excess rainfall for the period.

On the other hand, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh have faced ‘large deficient’ rainfall this pre-monsoon season so far, with less than 10 mm rainfall.

Weekend Weather (April 30-May 1)

Saturday (April 30)
Heavy showers are very likely over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya.
Widespread rains and thunderstorms are forecast over Arunachal Pradesh.
Fairly widespread rainfall with thunderstorms is expected over Assam & Meghalaya, Kerala.
Scattered showers with lightning are likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Interior Karnataka, and Lakshadweep.
Scattered rain/snow is possible over Uttarakhand with a chance of lightning.
Isolated rains are likely over Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Coastal Karnataka, with a chance of thunderstorms.
Isolated rain/snow is predicted over Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, with the possibility of lightning.
Widespread duststorms are likely over Northern and Central India, especially Punjab, Delhi, and adjoining areas.
Severe heatwave conditions are likely over West Rajasthan.
Heatwave conditions are forecast over Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Punjab, East Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, and North Interior Karnataka.
Sunday (May 1)
Fairly widespread rains and thunderstorms are possible over Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Kerala.
Scattered showers with lightning are forecast over Gangetic West Bengal, Interior Karnataka, and Lakshadweep.
Scattered rain/snow is likely over Uttarakhand with a chance of lightning.
Isolated rainfall is predicted over Odisha, Bihar, Jharkhand, East Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Coastal Karnataka, with a chance of thunderstorms.
Isolated rain/snow is likely over Himachal Pradesh with a chance of lightning.
Widespread duststorms are possible over Northern and Central India, especially Punjab, Delhi, and adjoining areas.
Severe heatwave conditions are likely over West Rajasthan.
Heatwave conditions are forecast over Odisha, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Punjab, East Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, and North Interior Karnataka.