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GPS signal effective in forecasting etxreme rainfall, say researchers

Heavy rainfall events can be detected around 5.45 hours to 6.45 hours in advance using delay in Global Positioning System (GPS) signals, according to researchers at the Department of Marine Geology and Geophysics at the Cochin Universtiy of Science and Technology (Cusat).

The research was done by Ms. Rose Mary under the supervision of Dr. Sunil P.S., Associate Professor, Department of Marine Geology and Geophysics, in collaboration with the National Universtiy of Singapore, Space Application Cetnre, India Meteorological department, Airports Authortiy of India, and the Indian Institute of Geomagnetism, according to an official communication.

A rapid increase in atmospheric water vapour is a fundamental factor of natural phenomena such as etxreme rainfall. During rainy season, when GPS signals from satellite pass through the atmosphere and reach GPS receivers on earth, there is usually a delay in GPS signal on the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere before it reaches receivers, it said.

The study, using continuous GPS and rainfall data from Thiruvananthapuram, showed that any heavy rainfall event could be detected in advance using the delay in GPS signals. Nearly eight etxreme rainfall events were studied by the group, including the one that caused the August 2018 floods, according to the communication.

Courtesy- The Hindu

Light Rain, Snowfall Likely Across Jammu-Kashmir, Himachal, Uttarakhand and NE India on December 29-30

The ongoing year-end festive and holiday period has been a cold one for many parts of India, especially the northern and northwestern states, which have been reeling under cold days and cold waves since Christmas. And now, this frigid weather will be joined by wet and foggy conditions across the country’s northernmost regions.

As per the India Meteorological Department (IMD), isolated to scattered rainfall and snowfall of light intensity is likely across the Western Himalayan Region — the mountainous territories of Jammu-Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand — on Thursday and Friday, December 29-30.

These wet and snowy conditions will be produced by a fresh western disturbance which currently runs as a trough in middle tropospheric westerlies.

Such western disturbances are essentially low-pressure systems that originate over the Mediterranean Sea, and are then pushed towards India by high-altitude westerly winds. Along the way, they gather moisture from various sources and then dump it over North and even Northeast India.

In fact, parts of Northeast India will also be in for similar conditions, with the IMD predicting isolated to scattered light rain and snow over the region for the next 24 hours.

And apart from the precipitation, foggy conditions shall also blanket both these regions during this forecast period.

The IMD has forecast dense to very dense fog in isolated pockets of Uttarakhand and dense fog in isolated parts of Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim during the next 24 hours.

Moreover, dense fog is also expected to blanket Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura on Thursday and Friday, Dec 29-30.

Such foggy weather can seriously affect visibility, and therefore, heading outdoors amid such conditions should be avoided unless necessary. When out, driving very slowly, using low-beam headlights and honking at appropriate times is recommended.

Muscat receives more rain; weather conditions expected to continue

Muscat: Muscat Governorate continues to receive more rain which is expected to last until Thursday morning. The Civil Defence and Ambulance Authority (CDAA) has called on everyone to exercise caution.

The effect of the air pressure continues on a number of governorates of the Sultanate of Oman until Thursday morning, according to what the latest weather maps and analysis of the National Centre for Early Warning of Multiple Hazards indicated.
The air situations in the governorates of Musandam, North Al Batinah, South Al Batinah, Al Buraimi, Al Dakhiliyah, Muscat, Al Dhahirah, North Al Sharqiyah and South Al Sharqiyah are affected by the depression. It is expected that these areas will witness sporadic rains of varying intensity, as they are sometimes thunderstorms and lead to the flow of valleys and reefs.

Aerial photos show condensation of rain clouds over the Governorate of Muscat with rain of varying intensity expected in the wilayats of Seeb, Bausher, Muttrah and Al Amerat during the next few hours.

The Civil Defence and Ambulance Authority (CDAA) noted continued rains of varying intensity in separate areas in Muscat Governorate, and the authority called on everyone to exercise caution and not to risk crossing valleys and water bodies, and to strictly adhere to warnings and instructions in order to preserve the safety of life and property.
– Times of Oman

More rains expected in Oman Tomorrow

Muscat: In its latest weather update, the National Early Warning Centre for Multiple Hazards indicates that the Sultanate of Oman’s atmosphere is likely to be affected by two low air pressures, starting today until next Wednesday.
On Friday evening, the eastern parts of the Musandam Governorate witnessed sporadic rains of varying intensity, which led to the flow of wadis. It is expected that the rains will continue sporadically in the governorate for the next two days.
The effect of the first low pressure will continue until Sunday. It will be accompanied by a flow of clouds with chances of rain of varying intensity, associated with thunderstorms in the governorates of Musandam, North Al Batinah and Al Buraimi.

Expected effect:

1- Sporadic rainfall of varying intensity from 10mm to 30 mm may lead to runoff in Wadis.

2- Active downward winds, with speeds ranging from 15 to 30 knots (30-60 km/h).

3- The sea waves will rise on the coasts of the western Musandam Governorate, reaching a maximum height of two and a half metres.

From Monday, 26 December to Wednesday, 28 December the effect of second low pressure is expected which will be accompanied by a gradual flow of clouds over most of the northern governorates of the Sultanate of Oman, with chances of rain of varying intensity (10-50 mm).

Details of the expected impact of this situation will be updated within the next 48 hours.

The Civil Aviation Authority has called on citizens and residents to take precautions and caution during rains, valleys overflow. Horizontal visibility will be low and people are advised to check the state of the sea before venturing out and follow the weather bulletins issued by the authorities.

New Bay of Bengal System Intensifies Into Depression; To Dump Heavy Rain over Tamil Nadu, Kerala from Dec 25

By TWC India Edit Team

Thursday, December 22: It has been a busy month in the Bay of Bengal, where one low-pressure area has already intensified all the way to Severe Cyclonic Storm Mandous in the first half of December. Now, another system has formed and gathered strength in the Bay, and is approaching India’s southern coast.

As per the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the low-pressure area over south Bay of Bengal concentrated into a depression earlier this morning.

It has been moving north-northwestwards at a speed of 20 kmph, and as of 11 am today, it lay centred about 400 km east-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 550 km east-southeast of Nagappattinam (Tamil Nadu) and 630 km southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu).

From here, its north-northwestwards is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Thereafter, during the subsequent 48 hours, it will gradually recurve west-southwestwards towards the Comorin Area across Sri Lanka.

As it edges closer to the Indian coast, it will start dumping intense precipitation over India’s southernmost states. In fact, the IMD has already predicted heavy rains (64.5 mm-115.5 mm) over south coastal Tamil Nadu on Sunday and Monday (Dec 25-26) and south Kerala on Monday (Dec 26), although the wet spell may well continue further into next week.

The depression’s presence in the Bay will also trigger strong winds and rough sea conditions. Therefore, the fisherfolk have been advised against venturing into the seas, at least until next Monday.

It remains to be seen if the system intensifies any further, although it’s currently unlikely that it will strengthen into another Cyclonic Storm. December cyclones in the Bay of Bengal are a rarity, although some do form and to a devastating effect, as Cyclone Mandous is proof.

Tropical condition 'Mandous' not affect Oman

Muscat: The tropical condition ‘Mandous’ is moving from India to the southeast of the Arabian Sea. There will be no direct effects of the tropical condition on the Sultanate of Oman, Oman Meteorology said on Tuesday.

The Meteorology said that satellite images show the movement of cumulus clouds associated with the tropical condition ‘Mandous’ from India to the southeast of the Arabian Sea. It is classified as a surface tropical disturbance near the western coasts of India.

The weather will be clear to partly cloudy skies along the coastal areas of Oman Sea and Musandam Governorate on Tuesday. Partly cloudy skies will be over south Al Sharqiyah, Al Wusta and Dhofar Governorates with chance of isolated rain and mainly clear skies over the rest of the governorates with advection of high and medium clouds. There is a chance of clouds formation and isolated rain over Al Hajar Mountains toward afternoon.”

Oman Meteorology said earlier today that the latest aerial photos show the spread of clouds on the coasts of the Sea of Oman and the governorates of Al Buraimi, Al Dhahirah, North and South Al Batinah, Al Dakhiliyah, and parts of North and South Al Sharqiyah and Al Wusta.

Meteorology stated that the waves on the coasts of the Arabian Sea will be medium and reached a maximum height of two metres, with the possibility of sea waves gradually rising to rough waves, reaching a maximum height of three meters during the period from December 16-18, 2022. Sea water may extend over the low coastal areas of the Arabian Sea.

Cyclone Mandous: 13 Dist Red alert in TN

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued red alert for heavy rain and strong winds in 13 districts of Tamil Nadu including Chennai tomorrow due to a depression that is being formed over the Southeast Bay of Bengal. Its impact will also be felt in Puducherry and Andhra Pradesh. Fishermen have been asked not to venture out into the sea.
National Crisis Management Committee (NCMC) yesterday reviewed the preparedness of Central Ministries, Agencies, and State governments with regard to the possible cyclonic storm. The meeting was held under the Chairmanship of Cabinet Secretary Rajiv Gauba. During the meeting, Mr. Gauba stressed that preventive and precautionary measures should be taken by the concerned authorities of Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry. He said, the aim should be to keep the loss of lives to zero and minimise damage to property and infrastructure such as power and telecom. In case of damage to this infrastructure, it must be restored in the quickest possible time, he added. The Cabinet Secretary also assured the State and UT Governments that all Central agencies are ready and will be available for assistance.
National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) has made five teams available to Tamil Nadu and three teams for Puducherry. NDRF teams are also being kept on standby for Andhra Pradesh. Rescue and relief teams of the Army and Navy along with ships and aircraft have been kept ready on standby.

A new dawn for humanity? COP27 ends; loss and damage fund, other agendas adopted

By Down to Earth
All agendas, including the loss and damage fund, were adopted at the closing ceremony of the 27th Conference of Parties (COP27) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), as dawn broke over Sharm El-Sheikh November 20, 2022.

This follows a proposal in the draft text on November 19 to create a loss and damage finance facility at Sharm El-Sheikh.

“I welcome the decision to establish a loss and damage fund and to operationalise it in the coming period,” António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations, wrote on Twitter. He added that this was a much-needed political signal to rebuild broken trust.

“A landmark decision in Sharm El-Sheikh COP27 on the establishment of a long-awaited Loss And Damage fund for assisting developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change,” Manjeet Dhakal, Advisor to the Chair of Least Developed Countries, wrote on Twitter.

The Sharm El-Sheikh Implementation Plan was also adopted by COP and the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA). It emphasises reducing greenhouse gases in applicable sectors through increased renewable and low-emission energy.

“Emphasises the urgent need for immediate, deep, rapid and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions by parties across all applicable sectors, including through increase in low-emission and renewable energy, just energy transition partnerships and other cooperative actions,” the cover decision read.

The previous version of the cover decision draft text, released November 19, did not mention low-emission energy. It also highlighted emission reductions across all sectors, unlike the adopted version, which changed the text to applicable sectors.

The cover decision continued to retain the phasedown of unabated coal and a phase-out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. It ignored Norway’s calls for the phaseout of all fossil fuel. India and the EU backed phasing down of all fossil fuel.

The work programme for urgently scaling up mitigation ambition and ambition was also adopted. The document on the mitigation work programme released November 19, made no mention of equity and CBDR (common but differentiated responsibility)

This is despite the Like Minded Developing countries, the African Group of Negotiators and India stating that the mitigation work programme should be guided by the UNFCCC’s principles of CBDR (common but differentiated responsibility) and equity during the negotiations.

Also adopted was the post-2025 climate finance target, the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate finance and the Global Goal on Adaptation, which is equivalent to the global goal on mitigation of limiting global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The CMA also adopted Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which includes Articles 6.2, 6.4 and 6.8.

Article 6.2 deals with bilateral trade of emission reduction outcomes between two nations to help achieve climate targets. 6.4 creates a market for carbon credits, while 6.8 deals with non-market approaches.

Transparency was a contentious issue during negotiations around 6.2. Parties have now agreed that information on carbon credits can be kept confidential, but an explanation “should” be provided.

The previous version used “shall” instead of “should.” “Should” means “encouraged”, while shall means “must”, Matt Adam Williams, Climate and Land lead from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), a non-profit, told Down To Earth. The phrasing of the word has been weakened, he added.

Northeast monsoon to hit Tamil Nadu from Saturday

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that the northeast monsoon will hit Tamil Nadu from Saturday onwards.
In its latest forecast, the IMD said that the monsoon is likely to hit South peninsular India from Saturday due to the northeasterly winds in the lower troposphere levels over the Bay of Bengal.
Scattered to fairly widespread light moderate rain with isolated heavy rains and thunderstorm is likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaiakkal on Saturday and Sunday.
According to the weatherman, heavy rain is likely to lash 20 districts including Chengalpet, Villupuram, Myladuthurai, Ariyalur, Perambalur, Cuddalore, Thanjavur, Tiruchirapalli, Nagapattinam and Tiruvarur.

The northeast monsoon was supposed to hit the state on October 20, but the IMD said that it was delayed due to a cyclonic storm formed in the Bay of Bengal and landed in Bangladesh.