weekly weather forecast for the period from 7/12/23 to 13/12/23 for India and Kerala (observation from 00.00 hrs to 23.59 hrs 6/11/23)
In the previous week ended on 6th December 2023, the ferocious cyclone over the Chennai coast wreaked havoc and Chennai , its suburbs, Thiruvallur, Chengalpet, & Kancheepuram bore the brunt with rains as heavy as 30 cms. Though this rain has nothing to do with NEM, the rainfall would still be classified under NEM. The heavy cyclonic rains continued over coastal Tamil Nadu, especially, in Chennai, Nagapattinam, Chengalpet, Ranipet, Thiruvallur, Villupuram areas, the southern coastal areas received moderate rains.
The cyclone also triggered heavy rainfall in coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema regions, pockets like Korba, Raipur in Chattisgarh, while moderate rains have been recorded in interior Telengana. The cyclone would decay and lose steam by 8th December 2023.
Kerala Isolated rain , North india Dry
In Kerala, rainfall has been isolated in eastern pockets of central and south Kerala. In north India weather continued to remain mostly dry except light to moderate rains and snow over J&K, HP and western Uttrakhand. Light to moderate rains have been recorded in Dhanbad , Rourkela, in Jharkhand.
Night temperatures in the north Indian plains settled around 10-°C-13°C and day maximum settled between 23-24°C. The lower Himalayan stations recorded minimum temperature around 10°C. Maximum day temperatures hovered around 22°C -24°C and night temperatures recorded 11-13°C in the national capital region of New Delhi .
The hill stations in higher Himalayas of Shimla, Manali, Munsiyari, Chopta recorded around 3-5°C during the night and day temperature settled around 12°C. Night temperatures are likely to hit subzero in these areas this week.
In J&K, night temperatures fell to -2°C in Sringar and to
-6°C to -13°C in Leh -Ladakh & Drass regions with day temperature around 2°C.
The lowest temperature of -16°C was recorded in lokpal in Uttrakhand where the day temperature was around 1°C. In the hill shrines of Kedarnath, and Badrinath the mid day temperature has been 0°C and night temperature close to -7°C.
Forecast: ( Effect from 08:00 hrs from 7/12/23 to 23:59 hrs to 13/12/23
A couple of weak western disturbances is on the cards and likely to move in to north-west India from 10/12/23. The associated trough lies at middle levels extending from Thajakisthan to J&K and further extends to HP. Light to moderate spells of snowfall and rain is likely over J&K and HP. Light rains are expected over Punjab, Haryana between 12/12/23 and 14/12/23.
Heavy Rain South Kerala
A cyclonic circulation lies south- west Arabian sea off the Male islands at 5°N and it is likely to move north and come closer to Kerala coast by 8th- 9th December at 10°N and lie near the Kavarathi islands. Due to this cyclonic circulation moderate to heavy widespread rains are likely over central and eastern parts of south Kerala.
Isolated spells of heavy rainfall may be expected over the Sabari hills, and hills along the districts of Kottayam Pathanamthitta, Kollam and Thiruvanathapuram on 8th, 9th and 10th December.
It could have a spill- over impact on the adjoining districts of Thirunelveli, Madurai and Theni districts of Tamil Nadu, with moderate rains in these areas. Temperature anomalies:
North Indian cities are through a warm winter and not much change expected till mid December.
Hill stations in the western higher himalayas may expect snow and rain and sub- zero minimums. Maximum day temperature lower himalayas and the plains could be around 24°C and minimum around 12°C. In the upper himalaysn hill stations, day tempersture coukd be around 13°C and minimum between -2°C to 6°C.
The maximum day temperature in the hill stations of Ooty & Kodaikanal in Tamil Nadu would be around 19°C to 21°C and minimum would be around 11°C – 14°C.
In Kerala, the lowest day temperature of 21°C-22°C would continue to be recorded in the hill stations of Kanthalloor, Vattavada and old Devikulam areas and in the upper reaches of Anamudi shola and the lowest night temperature would be around 13°C to 14°C in these areas.
The maximum day temperature in Munnar, Devikulam, Chinnakanal areas would be 24°cto 25°c and minimum around 14°c to 16°c. In Vagamon, the day temperature could be around 30°C and night temperature around 20°C.
The maximum day temperature in the Wayanad hill stations would be around 29°c and minimum around 20°C.
Global weather scenario
The plains in north India are currently going to a warmer than usual winter probably due to breaking up of polar jet stream and ridging along eastern Europe and resultant denial of moisture that triggers cyclones over the Mediterranean seas and weaker western disturbances. Cold snaps in the north- western parts of India usually follows a strong western disturbance. The weakening of the polar jet stream could be attributed to the ELNino.
North western Europe and the eastern USA has been through a strong cold outbreak as the polar vortex becomes unstable, and more storms and snow are in the offing for the UK and western Europe in the coming week.
Cyclonic activity may reduced
ElNino conditions persist over the equatorial Pacific with SST anomalies still slightly above the threshold levels and prevailing at +2°C over the Nino 3.4 region in equatorial Pacific. The IOD has softened of late and decreased to +1.29°C during December 1st week and thereby affected the easterlies.
The MJO which remained a major player last week is transiting out of its Indian ocean phase 3 and would move to maritime continent and is likely to transit to the western hemisphere in the coming weeks. Therefore cyclonic activity may be reduced over equatorial Indian ocean from 2nd week of December.
