Kerala weekly weather update from 07/07/25 to 13/07/25
P. Reghu Ram
Current observations
The northern monsoon trough lies almost in its normal orientation north-west to south -east from west Rajasthan to west Bengal and dipping into the Bay tilting south wards with height due to thermal gradient. The associated monsoon shear zone may lie from north-western parts extending upto Jharkhand.
An upper air circulation lies over gangetic west Bengal and adjoining Jharkhand and it could become a monsoon low and propagate slowly westwards through Chattisgarh , Madhya Pradesh & Vidarbha regions of interior Maharashtra.between 8 th & 9 th July.
The offshore western monsoon trough is active from Gujarat to north Malabar .
The monsoon has been extremely vigorous over , Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, southeastern regions of Rajasthan, Kutch and Saurashtra in Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan and Goa, some parts of gangetic west Bengal, sub-himalayan west Bengal Arunachal Pradesh and upper Assam.
Rainfall was moderate & fairly widespread in Odisha, Coastal Maharashtra, coastal Karnataka and north Kerala.
Rainfall has been patchy in J&K & east Uttarpradesh , Andhra Pradesh, Telengana, Bihar & Chathisgarh. Generally dry weather prevailed in Tamilnadu except isolated regions like west Nilgiris, Valparai and Manjolai hills in Thirunelveli district adjoining the windward western flanks of the western ghats.
Summer heat peaks in J&K.
Kashmir valley is in the grip of severe heat wave as mercury rose to above 37°C in Srinagar for the first time this summer. The tourist spots of Pahalgam and Gulmarg too were not spared as these spots recorded their season’s highest temperature at 32°C and
29 °C respectively. The highest temperature recorded in this region was at Gilgit in the UT of Laddak @ 41°C. The lowest minimum temperature was at Nyoma also in the UT of Laddak at 7.6°C
Monsoon performance
The monsoon as on date has been nearly normal for the whole country with some deficiency over the north – east, Bihar, Telengana and Andhra Pradesh and interior Maharashtra.
In Kerala, there is an update on the rainfall upto 30/6/25. Based on data supplied by reliable pvt individual rain trackers, Kulamavu in Idukki topped the list of the highest rainfall received stations with 287 cms followed by Kakkayam in Kozhikode & Mattilayam in Wayanad with 268 cms , and Pettimudi in Munnar as the third highest with 248 cms.
However, as already mentioned in my last weekly update, there could be other heavy rainfall stations other than those mentioned above which might have gone unrecorded due to lack of properly gridded AWS network, or insufficient data.
Prediction for the upcoming week from 7/7/25 to 13/7/25
For the upcoming week , due to the upper air circulation and monsoon low over Jharkhand which may move westwards, heavy rainfall is likely in Jharkhand, Chattisgarh on 7 th & 8 th July, and in Vidarbha and interior regions of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Uttrakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab & Haryana, west Uttar Pradesh, and NCR Delhi on 8th & 9 th July.
Extreme Rain alert
Extremely heavy rains may be expected in the Pauri Gharwal , Uttar Kashi , Dehradun , Chamoli regions of Uttrakhand and in Chamba, Dalhousie & Dharamshala in Himachal Pradesh on 7 th July as an upper air circulation may lie over Himachal Pradesh and adjoining areas of Uttrakhand. Tourists bound for hill stations in Uttrakhand & Himachal Pradesh may better postpone their journeys or take due precautions.
As the monsoon low over Jharkhand may intensify, extremely heavy rains may pound Raipur, Korba in Chattisgarh, Medininagar, Ranchi and Jamshedpur in Jharkhand on 7 th July and Nagpur, Amaravati regions of Vidarbha in Maharashtra & Bhopal, Jabalpur, Itarsi , Indore, Khandwa in Madhya Pradesh on 8 th & 9 th July.
As the offshore western monsoon trough would remain fairly active from Gujarat to Malabar region, rainfall activity is likely to be moderate over entire coastal region of Maharashtra, and the ghats, Konkan & Goa, & Coastal Karnataka.
KERALA
In Kerala, moderate rainfall activity is likely mostly in Kasaragod, Kannur & Kozhikode regions from 7th to 10 th July. However from 10th to 13 th July, moderate to heavy rainfall may be expected in the pockets of the eastern high ranges in Kannur, Wayanad, Malappuram, Palakkad and Idukki.
There is no alert for chances of any extremely heavy rains in any district in Kerala for the upcoming week.
Temperature anomalies
Among the major hill stations in Kerala , Kanthalloor & Vattavada regions may experience the lowest maximum day temperature around 19 °C and a minimum of 16°C, followed by Munnar with a maximum day temperature of 22 °C and a minimum of 17°C.
The other hill stations like Wayanad, ( Kalpetta, Vythiri, )Vagamon, Peerumade , Ponmudi, ( Thiruvananthapuram district )Painavu & Kumily lying at a lower altitude,( situated between 600 ms & 850 ms above msl) the maximum day temperature is likely to be around 25°C and minimum at 20°C. However in Wayanad, the high ranges of Meppadi, Sulthan Bathery, Ambalavayal located at a higher altitude of around 900 ms and above above msl, the maximum day temperature is likely to be 24°C and a minimum of 18°C.
In the lower plains of Kerala , the Malabar and central regions may experience a maximum day temperature of 29 °C and a minimum of 25°C and the south Kerala region , may get a maximum day temperature of 31°C and a minimum of 26°C.
In Tamilnadu, in the hill station of Ooty , the maximum day temperature is likely to be around 22°C and a minimum of 16°C and in Kodaikanal, it would be 21°C and 16°C respectively.However in the upper shola regions of the these 2 hill stations, maximum day temperature could be still lower at 19°C and a minimum of 13°C.
In Valparai & Meghamala, it would be 23°C and 19°C respectively and in Yercaud and the Kolli hills, it would be 25°C & 17°C Respectfully.
In Bangalore , maximum day temperature s likely to be 28°C and a minimum of 20°C, while in the hill station of Coorg( Medikeri/ Kodagu) the maximum day temperature is likely to be 24°C and a minimum of 19°C.
In Tamil Nadu due to moisture flux convergence and trough in the easterlies, isolated thundershowers may be expected in Puducherry, Vellore, Thiruvannamalai, Dindigul, Pudukkottai on 11 th and 12 th July.
Global weather outlook for the upcoming week
Extreme heat wave may continue its onslaught on eastern Europe and North East USA, and southern parts of UK with day temperature rising above 35°C. Omega blocking which causes deep ridging & associated high pressure dome trapping Pacific & central Atlantic heat in the erratic zig- zaggy jet stream pattern is reported to be the cause for this type of unprecedented extended periods of freakish weather.
However, New York, Philadelphia and south eastern parts of the USA like Carolina and Florida could get some respite as wet weather is likely on 7 th & 8 th July with storm tracks bein brought in by the easterly trades.
Tag: Kerala weekly weather update from 07/07/25 to 13/07/2
