India weather forecast for next week, from 07/09/24
As the India weather forecast ,western offshore trough becomes active, the Malabar regions of Kerala may receive moderate to heavy brains from 8th September. Isolated heavy rains may be expected on 6th in the eastern pockets like Koothuparamba, Peravoor , Mattannur in Kannur and eastern pockets of Kozhikode and in the coastal areas of north Kerala on 8th and 9th while the rains may be heavier in central and south Kerala on 10 th September.
The eastern high ranges in Kerala may expect heavy rains on 8th, 9th and 12 th September with maximum rains in eastern pockets of Kozhikode, Wayanad, Malappuram, and pockets like Ottapalam, Mannarkad, and Palakkad on 8th ,9th and on 12 th September. The eastern parts of Ernakulam like Kothmangalam, Perumbavoor, Muvattupuzha and Malayattoor, Idukki, Kottayam and Pathanamthitta may expect moderate to heavy rains on 8th & 9th September.
Due to active presence of the western offshore trough, widespread rains may be expected over coastal Maharashtra, Konkan coast, north and south coastal Karnataka. The interior regions of Marathwada, and Madhya Maharashtra comprising places like Sholapur, Nashik, Pune, Aurangabad, Jalgaon may receive isolated moderate rains on 7 and 8 th September while the Vidarbha regions may receive steady moderate to heavy rains from 7 th to 11th September due to the influence of the depression.
Previous Week AP Flood
In the previous week ended at 23.59 hrs on 5th September 2024, the south-west monsoon has been extremely vigorous over Andhra Pradesh and Telengana, vigorous over Gujarat, and active over the north- east, east and west Rajasthan, Uttrakhand , Himachal Pradesh, Punjab & Haryana, NCR Delhi, Chattisgarh , North coastal Karnataka, Konkan & Goa, Vidarbha (Interior Maharashtra).
It has been moderately active over sub- Himalayan west Bengal, Odisha, west Bengal, east and west Uttar pradesh, and west Madhya Pradesh, north Kerala, central Kerala, and other parts of the Indian peninsula. The cyclonic circulation over central Bay and a mid tropospheric circulation over north west India interacting with a feeble western disturbance has been instrumental in causing the widespread rains over the north- west and central and south central Indian States.
The monsoon trough has been slightly tilted north of its mean position at its north- west end and nearly normal at its south-east end. The western offshore trough remained active from Gujarat to south coastal Karnataka.
Forecast
Effective from 06:00 hrs from. 06/09/24, to 23:59 hrs on 12/09/24
The northern monsoon trough may continue to remain active and its north- west end may shift southward in the next 5-6 days. Another monsoon depression is likely over the north Bay off the Odisha coast by 7 th September . This system may remain stationary till 9th September and slowly progress north west by 10 th September causing heavy to very heavy rains in Jharkhand , Bihar , east Uttar Pradesh and west Uttarpradesh.
Meanwhile, a cyclonic circulation may lie over west Rajasthan and adjoining areas of Haryana to the north and Gujarat to the south. This may bring very heavy rains in Bikaner, Jaipur, Jodhpur, Dungarpur , Udaipur Ahmedabad, Dahod , Delhi, Agra, west Madhya Pradesh from 6th to 8 th September.
A north- south shear zone may lie from Haryana to Madhya Pradesh on 6th and 7th September . Under its influence heavy thundershowers may be expected in Shimla, Manali, Kangra in Himachal Pradesh, Chandigarh, Delhi, east Rajasthan , Patiala, Hissar, Panipat, Kota, Ujjain, and widespread thundershowers in Vidarbha, Telengana and Andhra Pradesh.
On 7th September, special alert needed for Delhi and adjoining areas of Haryana, as there is a likelihood of very heavy rains leading to local flooding. Similar threat of heavy rains exist in Prayagraj, Kanpur , on 6th & 7th September .
Due to mid tropospheric cyclonic circulation over Assam, extremely heavy rains may be expected in Aizwal, Imphal, Jorhat, Silchar, upper Assam, Meghalaya, and Arunachal Pradesh on 9th and 10 th September.
This system may progress westward and merge into the depression from the Bay on 11th September. As a consequence extrely heavy rains may be expected in Jharkhand , west Bengal , sub-Himalayan west Bengal, and Bihar on 11th and 12 th.
The system may further move westwards unleashing extreme rains over east Uttar Pradesh , west Uttar Pradesh , east Madhya Pradesh, and west Madhya Pradesh on 12th and 13th September .
Western, eastern central and south India
The Telengana regions may get a respite after extremely heavy rains in the last week. However isolated rains may be likely in Hyderabad and khamman regions on 6 th & 7th September. Coastal and interior areas of Andhra Pradesh may continue to receive scattered heavy rains from 8 th to 11 th September due to the fresh cyclonic circulation over the Bay.
In Chattisgarh and Odisha more pronounced heavy rains may be expected from 7 th to 11 September as the cyclonic circulation gains momentum.
In Tamil Nadu, due to wind disntinuity and trough in the easterlies, isolated heavy thinderstorm activity may be expected in pockets like Ramanathapuram, Madhurai and Dindigul on 8th and in Kancheepuram , Vellore, Thiruvannamalai, Neyveli on 9th September.
General distribution of rainfall and pockets of heavy rainfall alerts for the upcoming week
North west India: ( Moderate to heavy)
Ludhiana, Gurudaspur, Patiala, Chandigarh, NCR Delhi , Jodhpur, Bhilwara, Jaipur, Udaipur on 6th & 7 th September.
North- East India ( Heavy to very Heavy)
Meghalaya, Imphal, Aizwal, As ilchar, Jorhat, Upper Assam, Guwahati on 9 th & 10 th September 2024.
Uttrakhand & Himachal Pradesh: (Moderate to heavy)
Shimla, Manali, Kanra, Uttarkashi, Mandi, Dharamshala, Pauri-Gharwal, Karnaprayag on 6 th and 7 th September.
Uttar Pradesh:( Heavy to very heavy)
Bareilly, Faizabad, Kanpur, Lucknow, Agra, Jhansi , Moradabad, Meerut and Prayagraj from 7th to 12th September.
Madhya Pradesh: ( Heavy to very heavy)
Gwalior, Indore, Bhopal, Itarsi, Jabalpur, Nainpur, Kota, and Sagar from 7th to 9th September and in Jabalpur Ujjain , Bhopal, Hoshangabad on 12th & 13 th September.
Gujarat:( Heavy to very heavy)
Ahmedabad, Dahod, Vadodara, Surat , Palanpur on 6th and 7th September .
Maharashtra & Goa:( Moderate to heavy)
Mumbai, Ratnagiri, Jalgaon, Mahabaleswar, Malegaon, Jalgaon, Nanded, Nagpur, Washim, Ahmednagar , Lonawala, Goa, Goregaon between 6th and 10th September.
Andhra Pradesh & Telengana ( Heavy to Very heavy)
Hyderabad, Ramagundum, Mehbubnagar, Manuguru, Khammam, Kakinada, Vijayawada, Vizag, & Warangal from 8th to 10th September.
Karnataka: (Moderate to heavy)
Coastal south Karnataka, Sullya, Honavar, Coorg, Mangluru, Karwar, Uduppi, from 8th September to 11th September.
Tamilnadu: No alert for very heavy rains.
KERALA
There is no specific alert for extreme heavy rainfall events anywhere in Kerala.
SPECIAL WEATHER ALERT FOR TRAVELLERS AND TOURISTS:
North East India
Darjeeling, Gangtok, Siliguri, Arunachal Pradesh, Shillong Meghalaya likely to be rainy from 9/9/24 to 11/9/24. Extreme rainfall and landslides or flash floods may be expected in upper Assam, Imphal, Aizwal, Guwahati, Jorhat and Silchar on these days . Maximum and minimum temperature: 26°C & 20°C.
Uttrakhand
Moderate to heavy Rain in Uttarkashi, Pauri, Gharwal and Mussoorie may expect heavy rains on 7th September.
Maximum day temperature 19°C and minimum 15°C in lower Himalayas and 11°C and 7°C in the greater Himalayas lying above 2500 metres above MSL.
The Kedarnath and Badrinath hill shrines in the Gharwal Himalayas may expect moderate snow or rain on 6 th and 7 th September. Maximum day temperature in Kedarnath is likely to be 12°C and minimum 3-4°C. In Badrinath the maximum day temperature is likely to be 10°C and minimum at 3°C.
The Hemkund Sahib Gurudwara in the Gharwal Himalayas may expect snow or rain from 6th to 9 th September. The maximum day temperature may be 7°C and minimum may range from 3°C to minus 2°C .
Himachal Pradesh
Manali, Shimla, Dharamshala, Kangra valley may expect heavy rains on 6th and 7th September. No alert for any extreme rainfall events, or flash floods and landslides but some caution may be exercised on these days while driving to the hills.
Maximum & minimum temperature:
22°C and 15°C in lower Shivalik ranges and 15°C and 7°C in the upper Himalayas and Kinnaur ranges.
Jammu& Kashmir Light rains on 6/9/24 . No heavy rain alerts. Maximum and minimum temperature 24°C and 15°C in Srinagar and 16°C and 6°C in the higher reaches of the Karakoram Pir Panjal and Ladakh ranges.
South India
Hillstations of Ooty and Kodaikanal may be pleasant with generally overcast skies. Kodaikanal may expect light rains on 9 th September but may be sunnier than Ooty. Maximum and minimum temperature: 19°C and 13°C in Ooty and 22°C and 12°C in Kodaikanal.
Among the main hillstations of Kerala, Wayanad, Munnar, Vagamon and Peerumade may expect moderate rains on 8th, 9th and 12th September with maximum day temperature at 25°C and minimum at 17°C. -21°C. In Kanthalloor, maximum temperature is likely to be 19°C and minimum temperature at 14°C and with chance of light rains on 9/9/24.
The backwaters in Alappuzha and Kumarakom may expect intermittent spells of moderate rains on 8th & 9th September.
Global weather outlook
Currently neutral ENSO is prevailing in the equitorial Pacific and thr key ENSO in Nino 3.4 region consistently showing negative SST as nomalies which suggest a definite cooking of the oceans after the ELNino peaked in December 2023.
However, still LaNina cannot be fully confirmed for the ensuing winter months as conflicting signals are emerging with certain models showing -0.8°C SST threshold while some others as hoeing a neutral SST profile of -0.8°C to +0.8°C. SST patterns are showing very strange profiles compared with historical ENSO figures with July 24 and August 24 the warmest which means ENSO cannot be fully explained based on SST profiles alone.
The IOD is going neutral currently and is expected to remain so in the next 2 weeks. The MJO is currently in phase 3 -4 in the Maritime Continent. It is likeky to lose amplitude thereafter by mid September. Hence a shoert drier phase is likely over south India after September 15th.
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