Super El Niño: Urgent action needed to save lives, report warns; 450,000 people at risk

The intensity of the Super El Niño is expected to strengthen in the coming months. Scientists predict that its impact could push global surface temperatures up to 1.2°C above normal in the coming months. The El Niño event, which began in June, is expected to continue until the spring of the Northern Hemisphere.

As a result, the number of days with extreme heat could increase by 44% compared with a normal year, according to estimates. A new study says climate change could make El Niño bring temperatures that would otherwise be expected to occur roughly 20 years from now.

Could El Niño cause more than 450,000 additional deaths?

According to the study, between June 2026 and February 2027, heat could cause significantly more deaths than in a normal year an estimated 451,000 additional deaths.

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El Nino could hit supermarket prices

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That figure is around 65 times higher than the estimated 6,800 people who were killed or reported missing in Nepal’s flash floods. The report estimates that 239,000 additional deaths could occur worldwide in the next six months alone.

Current forecasts indicate that El Niño could continue into the spring of 2027. Therefore, the number of heat-related deaths could rise further if high temperatures and heat-related impacts extend into June and July, the report warns.

Global South likely to face the greatest impact

The study says regions in the Global South are likely to record the highest number of heat-related deaths over the next six months.

Between September and February, countries in the Sahel region alone could see an estimated 66,800 additional heat-related deaths compared with a normal year.

Nigeria is expected to record the highest number, with an estimated 31,400 additional deaths. The study projects another 17,500 deaths in Sudan, 10,000 in Niger and 8,000 in Chad. In Southeast Asia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia could together record around 19,400 additional deaths, while Indonesia could see approximately 19,300. The report estimates 15,800 additional heat-related deaths in India and 13,300 in Brazil.

India could also see a rise in heat-related deaths

The timing of heat-related deaths is expected to vary considerably from country to country. Between December and February, the study projects 15,400 additional heat-related deaths in Nigeria and 10,400 in Indonesia.

During the same period, Brazil could record around 8,000 additional deaths, while India could see approximately 7,400. However, heat-related deaths could rise again after February 2027 as countries in the Northern Hemisphere, including India and Pakistan, enter the summer season.

Urgent action needed

The report stresses that measures to reduce deaths need to begin as early as possible. Early heat warnings, proactive intervention by health workers, cooling centres, drinking-water distribution points, safety measures for workers, increased healthcare capacity, cooling arrangements at homes and adequate food supplies could all help communities cope with extreme heat and reduce deaths.

The study warns that this may not be an ordinary hot summer, but could instead be a warning of future climate conditions. Temperatures that currently feel unusually high could become normal within a few decades.

How were the mortality projections made?

The seasonal mortality projections were prepared based on research conducted by the Climate Impact Lab. The researchers examined the relationship between temperature and excess mortality by considering factors such as local weather conditions, population vulnerability and the ability of communities to adapt to climate conditions.

Data from 24,378 locations worldwide were analysed. The average conditions between 1996 and 2025 were used as the baseline for a normal year. These were then compared with long-range temperature forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to estimate excess deaths. The study also took uncertainty in the projections into account.

El Niño threatens more than human lives

El Niño is not only a threat to human life. It can also have significant impacts on other species and ecosystems. The study also points to the potential for major disruptions to agriculture, with El Niño posing serious risks to farming and food production.