Despite extremely hot conditions, the month of April is getting over without a cyclonic storm. The frequency of tropical storms in the Indian Seas, as such, is not very large in April. Only 2 storms formed over the Indian basins and both over the Bay of Bengal, between 2011- 2021. Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘Fani’ formed in 2019, striking Odisha. Another one Maarutha, the 1st tropical storm of North Indian 0cean in 2017, was a weak and short lived impacted Myanmar. April 2022 is the 3rd successive year without the cyclone on either side of the coastline.
Baton now gets handed over from April to May. Between 2011 and 2021, month of May has witnessed 2 storms in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal having bigger share of 5, including the super cyclone Amphan in 2020. Most of these storms on either side of shoreline come up during the 2nd half of May. There could be an exception coming up shortly, with a likely storm in the Bay of Bengal, formative stage starting as early 1st week of May.
A cyclonic circulation is expected to move across Gulf of Thailand and Malay Peninsula, around 04thMay. Quickly, this will make its way to North Andaman Sea and likely to turn in to a low pressure area on 05thMay. Environmental conditions stand favorable for intensification to a depression in the subsequent 24hr. The weather system will be placed under watch for any further intensification. Any tropical system reaching the stage of depression, stand a fair chance of growing to a storm, at this time of the season, over the Andaman Sea.
Storms during month of May threaten Myanmar, Bangladesh, West Bengal and Odisha. Tropical cyclones are known for defying norms of track, intensity and timelines. Therefore, entire coastline turns vulnerable, till the threat recedes. Specific details with more clarity will be shared in the due course.