Thiruvananthapuram: Following a brief lull, the Southwest Monsoon is gearing up for a major resurgence across Kerala. A fresh cyclonic circulation in the Bay of Bengal is set to reactivate monsoon winds, triggering widespread heavy to very heavy rainfall across the state starting Sunday night (June 28).

While earlier forecasts anticipated a monsoon surge last week, precipitation remained relatively weak. However, according to the latest meteorological models and MetBeat Weather analyses, a significant wet spell is locked in for the end of June, with heavy showers expected to spill well into the first week of July.

Cyclonic Circulations to Intensify Monsoon Winds

The primary driver behind this upcoming weather shift is the formation of the season's first major low-pressure system.

Bay of Bengal System: A cyclonic circulation has developed over the southeast Bay of Bengal, adjacent to the Myanmar coast.
Telangana System: A secondary cyclonic circulation is currently hovering over Telangana.

What this means for Kerala: The combined impact of these systems is already strengthening westerly winds over the Arabian Sea. Over the next 48 hours, cloud formation (cyclogenesis) will accelerate rapidly, paving the way for sustained, heavy downpours across the Kerala coast and interiors.

ബംഗാള്‍ ഉള്‍ക്കടലില്‍ ചക്രവാതച്ചുഴി, ഞായര്‍ മുതല്‍ വീണ്ടും മഴയെത്തുന്നു
The monsoon winds are set to strengthen again, bringing heavy rainfall back to Kerala starting Sunday night (June 28). Although earlier forecasts expe
https://metbeatnews.com/cyclonic-circulation-in-bay-of-bengal-heavy-rain-expected-in-kerala-from-sunday

Rainfall Forecast: Red and Orange Alert Conditions Ahead

Weather models indicate a staggered escalation of rainfall intensity across the state:

Sunday, June 28

The monsoon surge will debut in the northern districts of Kerala on Sunday night, bringing the first wave of heavy showers.

📅 Monday, June 29

Rainfall will expand southward, covering Central and Southern Kerala. The intensity is expected to match Orange Alert criteria, posing risks of localized flooding and waterlogging.

📅 Tuesday, June 30

Atmospheric conditions indicate a massive spike in precipitation, potentially reaching Red Alert conditions (extremely heavy rainfall) in several districts.

Current Weather Patterns: Short Bursts vs. Continuous Downpours

Over the last 24 hours, Kerala’s coastal lines and midlands witnessed intense but brief spells of rain—many lasting under five minutes. While coastal areas took the brunt of the showers yesterday, today's rain was sharp but short-lived.

Forecasters note that the current lack of sustained rainfall is due to isolated cloud formations that deplete quickly. However, once the Arabian Sea winds strengthen by Sunday, cloud formation will become continuous, leading to prolonged, relentless downpours rather than passing showers.

Residents, particularly those in high-range areas and flood-prone coastal belts, are advised to stay updated with official weather warnings as Kerala braces for a turbulent start to July.