NEW DELHI : India is heading into a warmer and drier winter, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting below-normal rainfall alongside higher day and night temperatures across most of the country.

The dry outlook threatens to deplete soil moisture and reservoir levels, creating significant headwinds for the upcoming Rabi agricultural season.

Northeast Monsoon to Bring Relief to South India

While most of the country prepares for a dry winter, the Northeast Monsoon (October–December) is expected to make landfall in southern India by the third week of October.

The IMD forecasts rainfall across South Peninsular India to land within the normal range 88% to 112% of the Long Period Average (LPA), which sits at 334.1 mm (based on 1971–2020 data). This brings much-needed relief to a region coming off its driest Southwest Monsoon since 1901.

Dry Spells Risk Heavy Strain on Rabi Farming

A nationwide seasonal rainfall deficit threatens to strain soil moisture and surface reservoirs, forcing farmers to depend heavily on artificial irrigation—a move that will increase load on groundwater reserves and regional power grids.

The IMD warned of higher odds for extended dry spells in the months ahead, noting that while extreme winter weather events are rare, localized climate anomalies remain a distinct possibility.

October Forecast Highlights

Rainfall Deficit: Below-normal precipitation, expected at under 85% of the LPA (national October LPA: 75.4 mm).
Temperatures: Maximum and minimum temperatures will stay above average nationwide, with minor exceptions in northeast India and isolated central and northwestern pockets.

Southwest Monsoon Wraps Up as 4th Lowest Since 2001

The troubling winter forecast follows an exceptionally dry Southwest Monsoon (June–September), which closed with 759 mm of rain—just 87% of the LPA. This was the 4th-lowest seasonal total since 2001 and the 13th-lowest since 1901.

The cumulative national rainfall deficit reached 12.6%, creating acute water shortages and drought conditions across Maharashtra, Karnataka, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana.

Monsoon Parameter	Status / Value
Total Rainfall	759 mm (87% of LPA)
National Deficit	12.6%
Historical Ranking	4th lowest since 2001 / 13th lowest since 1901
Dry Months	June and August
Recovery Months	July (Excess) / September (Normal)

Regional Breakdown: Record Lows in the East & South

Precipitation distribution was starkly uneven across regions:

East & Northeast India: Recorded 1,017.1 mm (74% of LPA)—its driest monsoon season since 1901.
South Peninsular India: Received 542.0 mm (76% of LPA)—the 4th-lowest total since 1901 and 2nd-lowest since 2001.
Northwest India: Finished close to normal at 94.1% of LPA.
Central India: Received normal rainfall at 97% of LPA.
Monsoon Core Zone: The critical rain-fed agricultural belt logged 779.9 mm, falling just shy of the normal range (782.8 mm – 881.2 mm).

With post-monsoon conditions setting in, agricultural agencies and state governments are mobilizing contingency measures to protect crop yields and rural incomes.

Option 2: Executive Summary (Best for Policy Briefs, Reports, & Presentations)

Key Highlights:

Winter Outlook: Above-normal day/night temperatures and below-normal rainfall projected nationwide by the IMD.
Agricultural Risk: Depleted soil moisture and low water tables pose direct threats to the Rabi cropping season, raising irrigation energy demands.
South Peninsula Exception: Northeast Monsoon expected in mid-October, bringing normal rainfall (88%–112% of LPA) to southern states.
Southwest Monsoon Deficit: Finished at 759 mm (87% of LPA), making it the 4th-lowest since 2001.
Regional Disparities: East & Northeast India saw its driest monsoon on record since 1901 (1,017.1 mm), while Central and Northwest regions remained near normal.