El Niño conditions are returning, changing the world's climate, reducing rainfall in India, causing drought
El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have started showing the first signs of a possible return. Climate analysts say it will begin in the second half of 2026 and reach its peak during the northern hemisphere winter. Scientists warn that a renewed El Niño will reinforce the current rising trend in global temperatures.
"The latest forecast data show that El Niño will return in 2026, strengthen in the second half of the year and last until the 2026-2027 season," said Severe Weather Europe, a European climate and analysis platform. Such a development could lead to another year of warming at or near 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. It would also increase the risk of more frequent and intense heat waves, droughts, wildfires, and other associated impacts of extreme global and local warming.
The phenomenon is changing rainfall patterns around the world
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is a period of higher than normal global average temperatures. The phenomenon is changing rainfall patterns around the world, bringing wetter conditions in some regions and drier conditions in others. In India, several recent monsoon droughts have been linked to El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Related.
During an El Niño event, the pressure over the tropical Pacific decreases, leading to increased rainfall and storms in the region, Severe Weather Europe says. Rising air over the eastern Pacific increases rainfall and lowers atmospheric pressure there, while sinking air over the western Pacific leads to higher pressure and more stable weather.
Spreading around the world, India to see less rain
These changes in atmospheric pressure and rainfall over the equatorial Pacific spread around the world and can influence weather patterns far beyond the region. In India, this often leads to reduced rainfall during the monsoon season. The equatorial Pacific Ocean is showing early signs of a possible return of an El Niño condition, which could start in the second half of 2026 and peak in the Northern Hemisphere winter, climate analysts say. Scientists warn that a renewed El Niño could reinforce the current upward trend in global temperatures.
"But recently, ENSO temperatures The anomaly has started to rise again, signaling the end of La Niña, Severe Weather Europe said. The equatorial Pacific is warming in the western part, a trend that is visible in the sea surface temperature anomaly data.
More clear signs of El Niño potential are emerging beneath the ocean surface. The image below shows the sea surface temperature anomalies. A large warm pool can be seen in the west at depths of about 100-250 meters (300-800 feet), "as these warm anomalies develop below the surface, this is one reason why La Niña is weakening from the west."
Seasonal forecasts also point to a shift to El Niño conditions. The main clear sign of El Niño on the horizon is the latest seasonal forecast for the ENSO region. The ECMWF forecast takes the summer of 2026 into the true El Niño range, lasting into the winter. Currently, this indicates a moderate-strength event, but scientists say it is stronger than previously forecast.