Kochi | Metbeat News Desk

A new Low-Pressure Area is likely to form over the Southeast Bay of Bengal around November 13, according to private weather observations. Forecasters indicate that if the system intensifies into at least a Deep Depression, it is projected to track North-Northeastward (NNE) toward the Bangladesh-Myanmar coastline—a shift from earlier projections that suggested the system might move westward toward the Arabian Sea via the Comorin Sea.

Projected Intensification Timeline

Favorable sea surface temperatures of around 29°C and supportive atmospheric conditions are expected to fuel the system's progressive development:

November 13: Formation of a Low-Pressure Area over the Southeast Bay of Bengal.
November 14: Consolidation into a Well-Marked Low-Pressure Area over the same region.
November 15: Further intensification into a Depression, tracking steadily North-Northeastward.
Subsequent Outlook: Depending on ongoing atmospheric feedback, the system holds the potential to strengthen further into a Deep Depression or a Cyclone as it approaches the Bangladesh-Myanmar coast.

Steering Mechanisms Behind the Shift

The projected North-Northeastward trajectory is derived from climatological analyses of November weather systems during past El Niño and Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) years.

After November 15, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) transitioning into phases 3 and 4 is expected to counter the Myanmar anticyclonic ridge at mid-to-upper atmospheric levels. Simultaneously, an anticyclonic ridge forming over the Arabian Sea will generate clockwise wind circulation extending into the West-Central and Southwest Bay of Bengal. Together, these steering flows are expected to push the system toward the Bangladesh-Myanmar border, provided it reaches at least Deep Depression intensity.

High-Pressure System Over Arabian Sea: What It Means for Kerala

Meanwhile, a high-pressure system forming over the Arabian Sea adjacent to the Kerala coast is set to alter local weather conditions in the coming days:

If the Bay of Bengal system intensifies and moves toward Myanmar: The high-pressure zone near Kerala will push away cloud cover, leading to largely dry weather, reduced rainfall chances, and a noticeable rise in daytime temperatures across the state.
If the system fails to intensify: Should the low-pressure area remain weak, it could still drift toward the Comorin Sea, bringing rainfall to South Kerala and South Tamil Nadu.

Disclaimer: This report is an analytical weather observation based on available meteorological parameters and climatological trends. It does not constitute an official weather warning. Readers and authorities are advised to rely on official bulletins issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for decision-making.